26 July 2007

Ron Paul Trumps in South Carolina - an Analysis

The Republican Party leadership and their chosen candidates got trumped in their own backyard of South Carolina. On Saturday, July 21st, the Ron Paul campaign, led by Ron himself, made a significant incursion into a state his adversaries believed to be theirs. South Carolina, as is the rest of the South, was supposed to be solidly in the current Republican Party's camp. It was here they had hoped to break Paul's rising tide and silence his message of LIBERTY. Instead, the Republican leadership found out something they weren't expecting - the party faithful yearning for a man with principled character and for his message.

It seems to me that the current leading Republican contenders for president have been trying to de-emphasize New Hampshire and Iowa where they feel vulnerable, but wanted to increase the emphasis on South Carolina where they felt strong and secure. The Republican Party bosses drew yet another line in the sand and dared Dr. Paul to cross it by having Rick Beltram, a local party chairman in South Carolina publicly proclaim, "He [Ron Paul] can stay home. The door is closed for him here." Paul not only answered their challenge, but trumped them in the process. Importantly, I believe he did it in a way that as of yet no one has noticed.

The usual method of disenfranchisement as established in Iowa is for an organization to refuse congressman Paul admission to their event, which causes an uproar. Pressure then comes from party members, a sign there are cracks in the base. Paul then comes to face his proponents and pundits and wins the day. We know he won the day in South Carolina by the number of people (500, plus those who couldn't get in) who came to hear him and because they gave him no less than 14 standing ovations during his speech. Also, Mr. Beltram collected a record $5000 profit from the function, which made him very pleased. Ron Paul's stealth trump of his competition came in the guise of his mentioning a possible running mate if he were to win the presidential nomination. This mention of Mark Sanford, Governor of South Carolina, as a possible running mate was clearly a very interesting and strategic play. Paul did this when he said, "If you found two people voting together [in Congress], it was Mark and myself. He would make an exceptionally good vice president." This line speaks for itself, but think of the significance it may have down the road.

The result from the events in South Carolina could be quite significant for Paul and the Republican Party. There he proved his support is REAL, and that the solid base the Republican favorites thought they enjoyed is soft and could erode if Paul's tide reaches it. Dr. Paul also drove a chisel into their foundation by mentioning the Governor as a running mate. This will give the Palmetto State faithful something to consider and a personal reason to support Paul. On a side note, as of the writing of this article I have not heard Governor Sanford reject Paul's offer, a healthy sign of support. I don't know what the rest of the field is doing and I don't think they do either, but I do know Ron Paul is moving forward while everyone else is still playing catch up.

Because of South Carolina other questions have arisen with far wider implications: 1) Is South Carolina an example of what may happen in the rest of the South?, and 2) Does Ron Paul have political coat tails?

This is my first public political analysis. I hope you found it interesting and that it gives you something to ponder.

(other articles are archived on my Writings page.)

Rebecca Iocca

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